Detroit's Evolution Is Not Without Peril
Big shifts in the economy often are likened to forces of nature. The impact of the financial crisis on Detroit's car makers, for example, was akin to an asteroid that wiped out plodding dinosaurs to give rise to nimble new creatures.
Less than two years after General Motors Co. GM +1.57% and Chrysler Group LLC declared bankruptcy, and Ford Motor Co. F -0.69% narrowly avoided it, their fortunes were boosted by a real-life catastrophe. Japan's March 2011 earthquake disrupted auto exports for several months just as its car makers were starting to once again take U.S. market share.
By that June, U.S.-based companies had boosted their market share by seven percentage points and Japanese companies shed nine points—a shift that normally takes years. Not only did Detroit sell more cars but, because of tight inventories, it saw greater unit profit, too.
Since last fall, yet another seismic shift has taken place. Japan's central bank helped weaken the yen, with the dollar breaking through ¥100 last month, a 30% depreciation that makes Japan's exports more competitive.
Still, U.S. auto sales reports for May due Monday should show that despite the currency tailwinds for Japanese manufacturers, U.S. auto makers probably had a banner month after a dip in April. Sales probably topped 15 million vehicles at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Through April, their market share was 46.2% versus 44.7% a year earlier.
A home-building rebound and gasoline-price drop favor sales of light trucks, Detroit's forte. While trucks make up half of all U.S. light-vehicle sales, they accounted for 60% of GM's sales and 55% of Ford's in April. Pickup trucks are a particular strength. All three U.S. auto makers have cut back on summer factory closures this year to meet demand.
But investors clearly think a weak yen will help Japanese car makers. Measured in dollars, Toyota Motor Corp.'s 7203.TO +2.07% stock has appreciated by 50% since October—a gain about equal to Ford's entire market value. Toyota's fortunes in other markets stand to gain too, of course, and its U.S.-built cars don't benefit from a weak yen. Even so, Japanese manufacturers may soon be tempted to price their U.S. vehicles more aggressively.
Detroit may have shrugged off currency tremors from Japan, but it hasn't felt the aftershocks.