Ford V\'s the rest...

[ozpont]

Fair for the industry, very bad for the Detroit 3
One bright spot for Ford division: It beat Chevy again
 





The Detroit 3's trials and troubles cost the companies 786,192 vehicle sales last year, robbing them of 3.2 percentage points of U.S. market share.

If the loss of penetration is similarly severe in 2007, the dreaded day of reckoning will arrive for General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and the Chrysler group. Domestic-brand vehicles will split the U.S. market just about 50-50 with import-badged cars and trucks.

On the whole, 2006 was a fair year for the U.S. auto industry. It sold 16,559,625 new vehicles last year. That was down 2.6 percent from 2005, but unit sales still topped 16 million for the eighth straight year. Before 1999, sales had reached that level only once, in 1986.

But calling 2006 a good year suggests the man with his head in the oven and his feet in the refrigerator. On average, he's comfortable.

As noted, it was a rotten year for the Detroit 3. Import-brand automakers fared better, gaining 348,614 U.S. sales. But Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. accounted for 282,230 of those extra sales, with its Toyota, Lexus and Scion brands. Aside from Toyota Motor Sales and American Suzuki Motor Corp., none of the imports set the world aflame.

Toyota Motor Sales topped 2.5 million sales for the first time. It passed the Chrysler group in U.S. sales in 2006 and should top Ford Motor this year.

GM, including Saab, outsold Toyota Motor Sales by 3.9 million vehicles in 1990, and by 3.3 million in 2000. GM's sales edge was 2.2 million units in 2005, but only 1.5 million last year. Worldwide, Toyota is on track to outsell GM, perhaps this year.

Trucks hum the blues

For the industry, December sales pretty much mirrored the entire year. Sales of the Detroit 3's domestic brands were down 82,089 vehicles, or 10.0 percent, from the year-ago month. Import-brand sales were up 29,251 units.

For the month, Toyota Motor Sales accounted for 25,043 extra import-brand deliveries. The company's sales jumped 12.3 percent in December, almost the same as their 12.5 percent gain for 2006.

U.S. light-truck sales plunged 6.7 percent last year, but that is just the tip of a gigantic chunk of ice. Sales of pickups fell 10.2 percent; vans, 8.8 percent; and SUVs, 9.8 percent. The only saving grace was a 4.1 percent increase in sales of crossover vehicles, which the industry counts as trucks.

For the year, sales of all big pickups fell 244,748 units from 2005.

SUV sales declined by a similar number - 246,762. Lost sales of SUVs and big pickups amounted to some $16 billion for dealers and about $13 billion for manufacturers.

The price of gasoline, which hit $3 a gallon last summer, bombed the pickups and SUVs. That price has declined to about $2.25, but consumers know it can return to $3 almost overnight.

Bright spots in bad year

Each of the Detroit 3 can point to a few bright spots in 2006.

Ford Motor's domestic brands lost 236,814 unit sales last year, but it had the most to brag about. Ford division beat Chevrolet to regain its ranking as the best-selling brand in the United States.

Ford led Chevrolet by 45,484 sales after 10 months, but Chevrolet cut that lead in half after 11 months. Ford held on in December to win the year by 18,527 sales. Ford has led for 19 of the past 20 years - all except 2005.

As usual, the competition for best-selling nameplate was no contest. Ford's F-series pickup blew away the Chevrolet Silverado by nearly 160,000 sales. It was the 30th straight year that the F series has led the pack.

Despite talk of a comeback, GM's domestic brands took a sales bath last year with the loss of 387,050 units. GM delivered 4,028,992 domestic-brand vehicles in 2006. That's the lowest total since 1970, when a UAW strike shut GM's U.S. plants for 67 days.

Paul Ballew, GM's chief sales analyst, said the company's retail sales have risen and its fleet sales have dipped. GM's incentive spending is down about $1,100 per vehicle from a year ago, he said. And GM's average transaction price was $28,000 in December, up about 8 percent from last year, Ballew said. Higher transaction prices are a dealer concern, of course. But profitable dealers order more cars and trucks from the factory.

The Chrysler Group was the only one of the Detroit 3 to report a December sales upturn, of 966 vehicles. For the year, though, Chrysler group sales tumbled 162,328 units from 2005.

Encouraging signs for the Chrysler group in December: a 60.8 percent increase in Jeep Wrangler sales; strong sales of the Jeep Compass and Dodge Nitro, Caliber and Charger; and a slight rise in sales of the heavily rebated Dodge Ram pickup.